Warm weather has finally arrived, and Thunder Bay’s late spring real estate market is in full swing. With May sales now in the books, let’s check in what this year’s price trends tell us about the local housing market.
Thunder Bay real estate follows a predictable seasonal pattern. Median prices peak in spring and summer when inventory is highest and sales are most active, then dip in fall and winter. This doesn’t mean your home is actually worth less in December than June — it means the more expensive properties tend to sell during peak season, skewing the median upward. That’s why year-over-year comparisons are by far the better way to tell where prices are going. They let us compare May to May, apples to apples, accounting for when homes actually hit the market each season.
Thunder Bay has experienced strong growth in home values since the beginning of COVID, continuing through to this year with only minor pauses. This year, comparing May 2025 to May 2026 Thunder Bay prices are up approximately five percent year-over-year. When you factor in current inflation running around two to two-point-five percent, that represents genuine appreciation beyond the rising cost of living. Expect this monthly number to bounce around, and April to April was a surprising 12% so when we look back after the leaves fall this year, I am expecting an overall increase in the high single digits.
Last year saw over ten percent growth — a remarkably strong market, especially when you consider that major Southern Ontario cities have experienced price declines over the past twelve to eighteen months, particularly for condos. Northern Ontario is defying that trend. Prices continue climbing.
Why the divergence? Northern Ontario real estate remains significantly cheaper compared to Southern Ontario, and we’re likely seeing migration effects as people discover better value and quality of life up here. I’ll admit bias, but if you ask me it is a better place to live — the numbers suggest others are coming to the same conclusion. A lot of the migration may be re-migration as young people or families are coming back after leaving the North.
Will housing supply growth be enough to moderate prices? Probably not for a couple years. Governments at all levels are now pushing for construction, and Thunder Bay is doing relatively well, but across Ontario we are still well below what we need to begin to solve the housing crunch. There is a lot of pent up demand.
Looking ahead, I’d anticipate a continued moderation in growth rates of prices over the next year. Federal immigration policy shifts may slow the migration effect that has been fueling demand. But that doesn’t signal a crash — rather, a market getting back to normal. For Thunder Bay homeowners and buyers, that still represents a fundamentally different landscape than what Southern Ontario is currently experiencing.