2025 has brought surprisingly strong demand for homes across the market, with both lower end and higher end homes seeing a significant year over year increase, in the order of 10% above 2024 prices. Leaving aside the rural areas for a moment the range of prices we are seeing for single family homes in the city range from about $200,000 at the low end to $1,200,000 at the high end. The median price for a home in Thunder Bay, which is something like a 1000 SqFt bungalow in decent but average condition will cost you about $400,000. In Thunder Bay at this time prices are close to double what they were the last time MPAC published valuations in 2016. This strong growth in values has encouraged a wave of upgrades and renovations in the city, as well as a burst of new home construction, with the city being recently recognized for exceeding its new housing targets with 262 housing starts in 2024.
Will the surprising growth in values continue into 2026 and 2027? If economic conditions remain relatively stable, such as no big shocks from the tariff war or large changes in interest rates, its likely that the “spillover effect” of very high housing prices in Southern Ontario will continue to support increases in housing values in Northern Ontario. There is still a significant number of retirees and “work from anywhere” families who can escape or cash out from million dollar homes and buy a similar home in this area for half the price. Additionally new Canadians are continuing to find Thunder Bay attractive for educational and business opportunities with a more affordable cost of living. Double digit percentage increases in values however are unlikely.
Regionally many of the smaller communities are seeing modest growth in housing values, perhaps another spillover from rising prices in Thunder Bay. Dryden, Marathon, and Nipigon appear to be nosing past all time highs that they saw during the COVID years. Demand for rural properties near Thunder Bay has been strong again. Other communities like Fort Frances, Geraldton and Longlac seem to be settling down somewhat from recent resource led booms.